Firms need pandemic crisis plan July 21, 2009 Toronto Star, Dana Flavelle

A report in today’s Toronto Star, written by business reporter Dana Flavelle, states that hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area are asking to review the crisis plans of their suppliers to deal with the expected outbreak of H1N1 virus (swine flu) this coming September. Last year hospitals simply asked their suppliers if they had a plan to deal with a pandemic; this year the same hospitals are asking to review crisis plans according to Jeff Stevens, who runs the Stevens Company, a medical supplies distribution business in Brampton, Ontario, Canada. The hospitals want reassurance from the Stevens Company that a pandemic would not interrupt their flow of medical supplies.

The hospitals are looking for a plan that would protect the flow of supplies if up to 30% of the companies warehouse staff were to book off sick with the flu. The hospitals started including references to a crisis plan in their requests for quotes or proposals. Those same hospitals are now asking to review the crisis plans to reassure themselves that the plans would be effective in keeping supplies flowing smoothly. “You need to have a plan that’s an active plan that you can modify, change and get to employees quickly,” said Stevens.

Reports of outbreaks in summer camps have increased over the past few weeks increasing fears of a pandemic in the fall. The Conference Board of Canada came up with a report outlining 3 key criteria that determine a companies readiness to deal with a pandemic: communicate effectively with employees, suppliers, governements, and media; devote time and resources to developing a plan; and share valuable lessons with peers. The aim of the report is to encourage preparedness in the business sector and to avoid panicked reactions from business. It is unclear how effective the Conference Board has been in communicating their message: a survey by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters found 87% 575 companies surveyed did not have a pandemic plan in place.

Manufacturers and exporters are being encouraged to put plans in place because few businesses could withstand a pandemic-type shock in good economic times, so would be less able to withstand them now. Jeff Brownlee, a spokesperson for Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters says that planning has to be thorough, “It’s imperative to have a strategy from the boardroom to the shop floor that safeguards all operations of your business, including your supply chain.”

The Stevens company have made the effort to implement what they feel is an effective contingency plan. Their contingency plan includes everything from who would step into a critical role if the person who normally fills the role were to fall ill to listing staff who are able to work from home. It also identifies the person responsible for coordinating the plan if the company experiences a pandemic.

Companies who would rather buy a plan off the shelf than draft one themselves can purchase a pandemic planning kit from Pandemic 101. The company will also sell consulting services to implement the plan. Kits can cost as little as $1,000 for small companies to $15,000 for larger companies. Company president David Howell views the situation this way: Buying a pandemic plan is like buying insurance – you may not need it, but can you afford to be without it.

Seasoned project managers will recognize the “pandemic crisis planning” for what it is, a risk mitigation strategy to deal with the risk of a flu epidemic impacting project deliverables and deadlines. The only difference here is the probability of the risk event occurring and the impact of the event if it should occur. Of course, business operations are exposed to the risk, as well as projects. For project managers who have been trained in best practices as described in the PMI’s PMBOK®, the pandemic threat is just another set of risks in the project risk register. If you are in that position, you may want to revisit your probability scores in light of the increased concern expressed by the hospitals. You might also want to compare your impact score to the hospitals benchmark of a 30% (the ability to endure a 30% loss in the work force without interrupting business).

You may want to check with your operational peers to see if they have implemented a crisis plan to protect their business from the threat of a pandemic. You may be able to provide protection to your project by simply taking part in their plan. You’ll just have to do your job as usual if your company is among the majority of companies that have no such plan. Don’t forget to include avoidance strategies into consideration when identifying effective mitigation strategies. The Tamiflu vaccine is still available and is a proven remedy to guard against the flu. There appears to be some evidence that the H1N1 virus is somewhat more resistant to the vaccine than other strains of influenza. You’ll have to do the research and make a judgment call for yourself when weighing the pros and cons of this strategy.

You should also bear in mind that statistically not all age groups are equally susceptible to the H1N1 virus. This strain is unusual in that it seems to favor young, otherwise healthy adults in the 25 to 40 year old age group. You may want to take this fact into account when determing the probability of the risk. This strain, like all previous strains, can be discouraged from spreading by simple acts like frequent washing of hands. One cheap and easily implemented mitigation strategy is the installation of hand wash dispensers throughout the work place. If this is beyond your means to supply, consider handing out bottles of hand cleaning solution. Beyond these avoidance measures, you should have a contingency plan ready to deploy as soon as you get the first phone call from a stricken team member. Have someone ready as a backup for anyone working on a critical path activity. Make sure that you have a contingency reserve great enough to deal with a 30% hit to your project team. If 30% of your team falls ill at different times over the life of the project, will there be sufficient staff to fill in? Can you engage contract workers quickly enough? Will the shortfall be made up by using your contingency reserve?

Every project has a different team, different deliverables, and different deadlines so each risk management plan needs to be unique, but I would recommend that every risk register include at least one entry for a potential H1N1 pandemic. I would go even further and recommend that you review this risk with your executive sponsor, steering committee, customer, or client and ensure that they are comfortable with the measures you are able to take. If not, your business sponsor or steering committee may be able to help you implement a better plan.